Facts
Verifiable
Most investment research is narrative reconstruction after the move.
Turn hindsight into an audit trail.
A post-event attribution framework separating Facts → Market Reaction → Causal Attribution.
Built for analysts who believe price is not explanation.
The problem
The chart moves first. The story is rewritten after.
- Price reaction mistaken for causality
- Strong narratives treated as evidence
- Benchmarks ignored
- Event windows chosen after the fact
- Missing evidence removed
- Confidence not explicitly separated
This framework forces decomposition before interpretation.
The core system
Not a model. A reasoning system.
What is objectively true
Market Reaction
Observable
Competing Explanations
Hypotheses
Causal Attribution
Evidence-weighted
It is not a single explanation system. It is a competing explanation system.
Evidence flow
How the attribution stack resolves uncertainty.
Observed Price Move
Document direction, magnitude, timing, benchmarks, and peers.
Low confidence
Competing Explanations
Keep fundamental, expectation, sector, flow, policy, and technical drivers open.
Low to medium
Evidence Weighting
Compare source quality, timing, alternatives, and multi-window follow-through.
Medium
Causal Attribution Output
Publish the best-supported conclusion with uncertainty and limits intact.
Evidence-weighted
Cases
Attribution failure modes
MRVL
Mistaking narrative shift for fundamental change
A strong reaction can precede operating confirmation.
Why this is misleading
Story upgrades and fundamental change are different claims.
ASTS
Confusing validation with monetization
External validation reduces risk but does not equal revenue.
Why this is misleading
Technical progress cannot substitute for unit economics.
FLNC
Confusing backlog with earnings visibility
Backlog does not guarantee timing, margin, or cash conversion.
Why this is misleading
Demand visibility and earnings quality are separate variables.
Quick Start
Start by breaking your intuition.
Clone the repository, choose a past move, and force the reasoning into three questions.
$ git clone https://github.com/MOISTBEAN/investment-retrospective-skill.git
$ cd investment-retrospective-skill
$ open SKILL.md with your preferred AI assistant- 1What happened?
- 2What moved the price?
- 3What can actually be attributed?
Open research infrastructure
If this changes how you think about markets, star the repository.
If you believe markets are interpreted, not explained, this framework is for you.